In a recent Bloomberg column, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley echoes a conventional Fed narrative, contrasting Fed interest rate cycles under two supposedly distinct Chairmen. “Powell will need to find a way to persuade [markets] that he has no intention of behaving like Arthur Burns…

Oil pump jacks at sunset sky background. Toned.

Ever since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described cyclical or COVID-related elements of inflation as "transitory" (an ambiguous phrase now retired), critics repeatedly seized on year-to-year changes in price indexes as evidence that inflation was instead accelerating every month. As I have noted before, however, the stubborn…

Starting with the April 2021 release, virtually every monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has indicated some form of abnormally high inflation. For instance, the April CPI rose 4.2 percent over the previous 12 months, the largest year-to-year increase since the period ending September 2008. Similarly, the…